Every quarter we publish our house view, where our specialists comment on the market, the current economic situation, short term performance drivers and long term performance drivers etc.
The main purpose of our investment research is always to facilitate better investment performance for our clients.
Jon Vetrhus, Head of Investment Research expects Nordic Real Estate values to continue trending downwards in the short-term but sees opportunities for long-term investors (House View Q4 2022):
Markets continue to correct themselves due to stagflation risks and elevated interest rates, although we find evidence of buyers and sellers getting closer. Efficient and well-located assets are sought after and we observe tough competition for trophy assets, many of which were not even available six to twelve months ago – and certainly not at today’s pricing.
Letting markets have in general been strong and vacancy levels are record low across the Nordics. However, increased liabilities through increased operational costs for most companies could lead to a pick-up in tenant default rates.
Real estate owners should take risk off the table where possible but must be prepared to realize below book value if they need to sell assets. Pure equity buyers will be viewed as preferred buyers and the current environment could lead to new opportunities – for both core and value add strategies. For long-term investors, 2023 could prove to be an attractive year to invest in Nordic real estate assets due to high quality assets becoming available at an acceptable pricing.
Lars Flåøyen, Head of Investment Strategy believes DEAS Asset Management should be positioned well for the current market environment (House View Q4 2022):
We think the reward for taking risk in Nordic real estate markets has been poor in recent years, and hence we have de-risked our core strategies by using less leverage, selling riskier assets, investing to improve the quality of our assets and focusing on reducing cash flow risks.
This enables us to exploit market opportunities that may arise from the current market environment, and more importantly – we think we are in a good position to avoid stressed actions in our funds and mandates.
Our higher risk strategies are broadly not pure yield plays, and we believe underlying fundamentals still supports our value-added business cases, even if market values in general are trending lower. We think lower real estate values and a more volatile market environment will open for opportunities for us to exploit across the risk spectrum.